👋 This Week’s Signal

Earnings season delivered — and so did the RBA. The ASX 200 hit an intraday record above 9,118 this week, closing at its best weekly level in years. But underneath the headline number, the RBA just kicked off a new hiking cycle, Zip Co imploded 38% in a single session, and Rio Tinto disappointed. For Australian investors, the message is clear: the rising tide is no longer lifting all boats. Selectivity is everything from here.

📈 ASX Watch

The ASX 200’s 1.8% weekly gain was solid, but the dispersion tells the real story. BHP impressed and NAB delivered, while Rio Tinto fell 3.1% on earnings that missed expectations. QBE Insurance surged on a beat; Suncorp struggled. The week’s headline loser: Zip Co, down a staggering 38% after missing on revenue, earnings, and US growth metrics — a stark reminder that BNPL stocks remain binary bets on execution. Eyes now turn to Woodside Energy, Woolworths, Coles, and Qantas. Woodside warrants close attention: LNG prices, domestic energy demand, and capital allocation decisions are all in play simultaneously.

🌏 Macro Pulse

The RBA became the first major central bank to hike in 2026 — raising 25bp to 3.85% on February 3 in a unanimous decision. The trigger: inflation re-accelerating to a six-quarter high on the back of stronger-than-expected private demand and a still-tight labour market. Australia has officially broken from the global rate-cutting consensus. Markets now price 80% odds of another hike by May, with 4.10% fully priced in by August. For Australian portfolios: rate-sensitive sectors (REITs, consumer discretionary) face structural headwinds, the AUD has strengthened on the rate differential, and term deposits are becoming genuinely competitive again. Globally, the US Fed remains on hold and the ECB cautiously cuts — Australia’s rate divergence is one of the defining macro themes of 2026. Oil added to the mix, with WTI climbing 2% to US$66.47 on geopolitical tensions.

💡 The Edge

ASX Ltd itself is quietly becoming one of the most interesting situations on the board — but not as a buy. CEO Helen Lofthouse’s surprise exit, a 20–23% cost blowout, and an active ASIC probe with a final report due March 31 make the stock worth avoiding near term. But the disruption thesis is worth filing away: whoever captures exchange infrastructure share as ASX modernises or stumbles stands to benefit. Watch for the ASIC report in late March — it could be a catalyst in either direction.

📊 Quick Stats

ASX 200: 9,081 (+1.8% on the week, highest weekly close on record)

RBA Cash Rate: 3.85% (hiked 25bp Feb 3 — first hike since 2023)

AUD/USD: 0.7043 | WTI Oil: US$66.47/bbl (+2%) | Next catalysts: Woodside, Woolworths, Qantas earnings

Until next week,

The Wealth Signal Team

Free weekly ASX & macro intelligence — thewealthsignal.com.au